US Economics Focus AI boosting US economic growth The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector... 18th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q3 2025) The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update US-Swiss deal to help reverse GDP contraction Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2025) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q3 shows that US trade policies have been much more disruptive for Switzerland than was anticipated. But a deal agreed last Friday will reduce the tariff on Swiss exports... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand GDP (Q3 2025) Thailand’s economy contracted during the third quarter and we think it will struggle over the coming months, prompting the central bank to step in and loosen monetary policy by more than most expect. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 2025 Preliminary) The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Normal service resumes in Washington We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2025) The solid rebound in manufacturing sales in September is not as positive for GDP growth as first meets the eye, since inventories of finished products and goods in process both ticked down that month... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller... 14th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK minutes, Malaysia Q3 GDP, Korean defence boost The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes show the central bank has become more upbeat on the near-term growth outlook and more concerned about rising property prices in Seoul. This reinforces our view that... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q3) Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: growth to struggle as consumers pull back Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2025) The collapse in investment spending continued last month, though we still think it is likely to partially reverse before long. More worrying is that output-side measures of activity, which had held up... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
