Japan Economics Update Prolonged border closure could lift labour costs With economic activity still depressed by recurrent virus waves, the sharp slowdown in immigration to Japan has yet to put much upwards pressure on wages. However, looking ahead we think some sectors... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market Both we and the market are now discounting 100bp of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. And given the sequencing set out by Christine Lagarde, it seems likely that net asset purchases will end in Q3... 8th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec) Goods trade moved into a modest deficit in December but, with oil prices rising sharply since then, it should return to surplus in January. 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The solid gains in both exports and imports in December are a signal that global supply chain problems are easing, although the further widening in the trade deficit suggests that net trade will be a... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Dec. 2021) Wage growth turned negative in December due to another fall in end-of-year bonus payments, but it should soon bounce back above 1% y/y this year as the labour market tightens and strong corporate... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (December) The small decline in production in December was not quite as bad as it looks because it was largely due to a fall in construction activity, but 2021 was still a terrible year for German manufacturers... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s economy rebounded strongly in the final quarter of last year, but the recovery is now entering a more difficult phase. Omicron will act as a small obstacle in the first quarter. But a... 7th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing profit margins set to reach record-high Soaring input prices have kept profit margins of manufacturers below their pre-virus peak even as those of services firms have hit record highs. However, manufacturers will catch up before long. 6th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Major economies floundering, Brazil’s primary surplus While there were some positive signs from the latest activity data for Brazil and Mexico, both economies seem to have started 2022 on the backfoot. Otherwise, fiscal figures show that Brazil's... 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Better news for the US economy than the US stock market Today’s stronger-than-expected US Employment Report (see the US section below) serves as a reminder that good news on the economy isn’t necessarily good news for the stock market. 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron disruption already in the rear-view mirror The data releases this week suggest that the Omicron wave was more disruptive than we anticipated, but there are already positive signs that the economy will strongly rebound this month. 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
