Global Economics Update Further thoughts on Omicron’s economic effects While it is very uncertain, we estimate that disruption due to Omicron could knock around 1% off GDP in advanced economies while the outbreak is at its height, mainly due to staff absences. This would... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The disappointing 0.1% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in November raises the chances that the economy slipped into a recession last quarter. And while auto production looks to have... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021) November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron a new type of challenge for labour market The Omicron wave will be characterised more by heightened absenteeism from work than previous waves. This raises the risk that the hit to activity will be larger than current restrictions alone might... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
