Asia Economics Weekly Thai tourism boost, new oil price forecasts Better times lie head for Thailand’s tourism industry after the government this week announced it would resume its quarantine-free travel scheme from 1 st February. A recovery in tourism will not only... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile? President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Economy less favourable for whoever’s in Number 10 Although it is hard to predict whether by the end of next week Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister will be solidifying or crumbling, we know that whoever is in Number 10 over the next year will... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restrictions may not last long, key Shunto approaching With restrictions this week expanded to cover most of Japan’s economy, and surging infections already starting to cause staff shortages in some industries, GDP is only likely to tread water this... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some relief for property developers This week’s cut to policy rates is one of a succession of recent moves designed to stabilize residential property sales. Developers have also been given a little more breathing room in terms of their... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in state-level virus data COVID infections have been falling in parts of India over the past week, particularly in those areas that were first to report Omicron waves. We’re hopeful that this is a sign of things to come, and... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in retail sales volumes in December was bigger than expected and supports our view that the Omicron outbreak in the run-up to Christmas may have dragged down GDP by 0.5% m/m, if not more. 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the cusp of policy tightening India’s Omicron wave should only be a temporary setback to the economic recovery. As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that economic growth will be faster this year than... 19th January 2022 · 18 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
