Japan Chart Pack Hit to output from staff absences could be hard Skyrocketing infections and a 10-day isolation requirement for close contacts of positive cases have resulted in a wave of staff absences in Japan. Domestic carmakers already struggling with chip... 24th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The small decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that Omicron has taken a toll on the services sector, though Germany performed surprisingly well. We think governments will ease restrictions... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The latest activity data in Poland show that industry expanded strongly in Q4 but that the shine came off the retail sector amid falling consumer sentiment and surging inflation. We think that GDP... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Starting 2022 on the back foot Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 2022) The January flash PMI suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to expand at a rapid pace, but there are mounting signs that firms are passing on higher input costs to consumers. By contrast... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rise in retail sales in November was not as strong as it looks, and the preliminary estimate suggests that sales fell sharply in December amid the Omicron wave. They are likely to fall further... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron reaches plateau, leaving Fed free to hike We expect the Fed to deliver some heavy hints at next week’s FOMC that it is planning an interest rate hike in March. With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
