Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2021) Turkey’s economy weathered the initial fallout from the currency crisis well, with GDP rising by 1.5% q/q in Q4 of last year, but a downturn is likely at the start of this year. The Russia-Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2022) The rebound in retail sales in January suggests that the Omicron wave had a much smaller impact than many had feared and consumption will probably keep rising this quarter. 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2022) The falls in both retail sales and industrial production in January confirm that the Omicron surge has knocked back the recovery. We think consumer spending will fall across this quarter, but it... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Russia-Ukraine and the market fallout: the story so far After a volatile 48 hours in financial markets, this Capital Daily highlights the key lessons from the market fallout since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A few points are worth stressing, in... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis raises inflation and debt risks The Russia-Ukraine crisis will improve the terms of trade of some African oil producers like Angola and Nigeria. But it will add to inflation pressures across the region. And in the meantime, investor... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Reflecting on the week that war began Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week will have significant and far-reaching implications and while reports of talks raise hopes, a halt to fighting does not look imminent. Russia's economy is likely... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis & Latin America The main economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on Latin America will come via higher commodity prices, with oil and grains producers set to benefit. But it will also cause inflation to trend... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Terms of trade most favourable on record For Canada, the main impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis so far has been to push up the terms of trade to the most favourable on record. That could lead to the Bank of Canada becoming more hawkish... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Jan.) The real economy appears to be in good health, suggesting that the Fed will push on with planned rate hikes starting in March, although the Ukraine conflict makes a 50bp hike less likely. 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
