Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Presidential election a watershed moment for Korea Korea’s presidential election on 9 th March will have major implications for the country’s economic future. A pledge by the ruling DPK’s candidate to introduce a universal basic income could bring... 3rd March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf rebounded after the short-lived disruption from the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine for Canada Higher commodity prices and stronger immigration from Ukraine are potential benefits for Canada’s economy from the war in Ukraine, but there is a risk that near-term real GDP growth disappoints due to... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine As Russia becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China as a trading partner. That will present some opportunities for Chinese firms to take market-share from western suppliers and... 2nd March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in February as the Omicron outbreak subsided and containment measures were scaled back. But the threat of a continued rise in commodity prices as a result of the... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 21) Q4’s jump in GDP brought output closer to its pre-virus trend and we think it will get there next quarter already. But with tighter monetary policy looming on the horizon, growth is set to slow before... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry rebounds from Omicron, but risks ahead The latest manufacturing PMIs add further evidence that the hit to industrial activity from Omicron was limited and should be short-lived. Although supply chain issues and price pressures no longer... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.6 in February, from 57.6, is another sign that demand remains strong, with the small rise in supplier delivery times and modest decline in the prices paid... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Russia-Ukraine war risks renewed trade disruptions The latest trade data suggest that the Omicron wave caused limited disruption at the turn of the year. And, for now, it looks like the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on world trade will be small in... 1st March 2022 · 5 mins read
