China Economics Update COVID-19 derails China’s domestic recovery yet again The current virus wave will deal the biggest blow to China’s service sector since the original outbreak. If the lockdowns already imposed can suppress infections quickly then disruption to industry... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) January’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s recovery gained ground following the Omicron virus wave. Taken together with more timely figures that point to a continued rebound in activity and... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession risks still contained The earlier spike in crude oil prices, slump in stock markets and the flattening of the Treasury yield curve have prompted fears that US economy is headed for a 1970s-style stagflation, but our... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growing threats to global growth and inflation We warned at the start of the year that global growth would disappoint, while inflation would surprise to the upside in 2022 and recent events have added to those concerns. The surge in commodity... 15th March 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in manufacturing sales volumes in January was at least in part due to the impact of staff absenteeism amid the Omicron outbreak and, with hours worked across the sector increasing... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.), PBOC Rates (Mar.) Activity data for the first two months of the year was stronger than anticipated, which probably explains why the People’s Bank (PBOC) unexpectedly kept its policy rates on hold today. But the economy... 15th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market The surprisingly strong rise in employment in February reduces the downside risks to near-term economic activity from higher energy prices and reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada will now hike... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, SA’s terms of trade and fuel inflation The latest economic data suggest that South Africa’s recovery has gained ground, and some sectors will benefit from elevated metals prices caused by the war in Ukraine. But at a macro level, a... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Russian economic crisis will hit Cyprus hard Cyprus is by far the most exposed euro-zone economy to the collapse in Russia’s economy and it now looks very likely to fall into recession in the coming quarters. In this Update, we take a look at... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The labour market boom resumed in February and the odds of a sharp acceleration in wage growth are rising, which would add to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New GDP growth forecasts We are cutting our GDP growth forecasts for many parts of emerging Asia in response to the surge in global energy prices and the war in Ukraine. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
