Africa Economics Update Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lift-off for the Bank of Thailand Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What's Danish for the "canary in the coal mine"? Denmark’s manufacturing PMI fell precipitously from 70.0 to a 27-month low of 38.0 in July. While Denmark's PMI is extremely volatile, this was its largest fall since 2008. And given that Denmark is a... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The rise and fall of Japan's energy imports Japan is still struggling to wean itself off fossil fuels despite a new government push to boost solar power. However, the country has become more energy efficient over the past decade, which has... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will press on with another 50bp hike next month The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that it will slow the pace of tightening over coming months as tighter policy is starting to weigh on activity. With growth softening rather than collapsing... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic growth in Indonesia remained strong in Q2, but we expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the jump in commodity prices goes into reverse and the boost from reopening... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inventory building will not transform the outlook There is scope for inventory building to boost GDP growth in the near term but, as the US experience has recently demonstrated, this could raise the risk of GDP falling in the following quarters. 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Will frontloading make hard landings less likely? The pace of policy tightening has increased still further, with many central bankers arguing that rate hikes must be “frontloaded” to tackle inflation risks quickly. In the current environment, this... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The fall in the trade deficit to an eight-month low of $79.6bn in June, from $84.9bn, leaves net trade well placed to support a rebound in GDP in the third quarter. But with the surveys consistent... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jun.) Export volumes outpaced import volumes in June but, with the survey-based export indices falling back, the outlook is growing more challenging. Together with the declines in commodity prices since... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
