Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q2 and we have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.3% (from 1.8% previously). Even so... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic footballing woes; Record loss for SNB The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) GDP in Taiwan contracted last quarter as a surge in COVID-19 cases weighed heavily on consumer-facing sectors and exports slowed. Although consumption should bounce back now that virus cases are... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy to slow more sharply than Treasurer expects While we expect the economy hold up a bit better than the Treasurer in the near-term, aggressive policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia will exacerbate the ongoing housing downturn... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Tokyo CPI (June 22) While industrial output bounced back strongly in June, the recovery in the labour market is stalling and consumer spending is faltering. One reason is that rising consumer prices are weighing on... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily This is (probably) not the Powell pivot markets are looking for Financial markets have taken the combination of yesterday’s FOMC’s announcement and today’s negative US GDP print as confirmation that policymakers will ease off their aggressive monetary tightening... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 0.9% annualised fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession. The decline was partly due to a huge drag from inventories, while most other... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Update Policymakers give up on 5.5% growth The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It reiterates the need for more policy support but stops short of any major new... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weakness in Spanish household spending to persist Household consumption has been weaker in Spain than in other big euro-zone economies, reflecting the slow rebound in tourism, more limited fiscal support and higher inflation. The latter is set to... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
