Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin meets energy allies, Turkey’s court decision China and India both signalled this week that they are likely to continue buying Russian energy, but this won't save Russia from weak GDP growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the macro data out... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan oil, Ghana CPI & cedi, SA inflation target Angola's oil sector is continuing to struggle and, while investment announcements from multinationals this week should help eventually, a backdrop of lower oil prices and a fragile fiscal position... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025) The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the... 5th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumer revival to temper RBA rate-cut outlook The Australian economy bounced back strongly last quarter, buoyed by a sharp rise in consumer spending. With households' real incomes growing strongly and housing wealth increasing in tandem, we... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug. 2025) The solid rise in the ISM services index in August matches the generally positive mood around the economy’s growth prospects in the third quarter. The tick down in the prices paid index is a relief... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (Jul. 25) With the Australian consumer springing back into action, the case for aggressive policy easing is becoming weaker. 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Sweden GDP forecast Despite the strong rebound in Q2, Sweden’s economy has fared worse so far this year than many expected. We now forecast it to grow only moderately over the remainder of the year, before returning to... 3rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Aug. ‘25) The whole economy PMIs for August strengthened a little in the Gulf states, though the surveys still suggest that activity private non-oil sectors has softened in Q3. Elsewhere, while Egypt’s PMI fell... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Inside India’s infrastructure drive The government’s post-pandemic infrastructure drive is helping to ease some of the bottlenecks that have previously constrained India’s economy, with particular success in developing port, railway and... 3rd September 2025 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2025) Activity rebounded strongly in Q2, and for all the right reasons. The pickup in domestic demand raises the risks that the RBA won’t loosen policy as aggressively as we’re predicting. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing gains some momentum The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in August suggests that the sector accelerated in Q3, helped by external demand. But, overall, conditions in manufacturing remain pretty weak and may deteriorate... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
