China Economics Weekly Don’t take a deal at face value, AI investment ramps up A key outcome of President Trump’s previous trip to China in 2017 was a package of “trade and investment deals” that the White House valued at more than $250bn. But the bulk of these deals never... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q1 2026) Polish GDP growth in Q1, of 0.5% q/q, was a bit softer than expected, but it still looks like the economy weathered the first few months of the energy shock reasonably well. 14th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Iran war may help rather than hurt China’s growth Despite high global energy prices, China’s economy is stronger now than at the start of the year. An AI-related boost to investment and electronics exports is playing a role. But China has also... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget leaves RBA to do the heavy lifting on inflation The Australian government’s 2026/27 Budget does little to move the needle on fiscal policy. Although Commonwealth coffers will benefit from a windfall driven by higher commodity prices, much of this... 12th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update First signs of advanced economy fallout from Iran war The marked increase in inflation across advanced economies has yet to cause real spending to contract, but the widespread decline in consumer sentiment and hiring intentions points to worse to come... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI averages $80pb over the second half of the year. This will boost GDP growth slightly and keep headline inflation above 2.5% in the coming months. But the backdrop of weak... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack - Iran War Edition (May 2026) While Gulf economies have already taken a big hit from the Iran war, the effect on activity in major economies seems to have been limited so far. Inflation has begun to rise and will continue to do so... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which sectors are suffering most from the China shock? The euro-zone has been one of the biggest losers from China eating up a larger share of the global export market. It has lost market share across a wide range of industries including vehicles... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2026) Higher oil prices pushed up import values last month. But soaring chip prices are having an even bigger impact on China’s trade data, pushing up both exports and imports. Price effects aside, the big... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom rates, Brazil’s rare earths, fiscal developments With the latest indicators suggesting that Brazil's economy is holding up well and the labour market is still strong, we now expect the Selic rate to end this year at 13.25% (compared to 12.50%... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
