Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2025) Chile’s economy ended last year on a strong footing, with GDP rising by 0.6% q/q, but the energy price spike and fiscal tightening planned under President Kast will cause the economy to weaken in the... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb. 2026) The modest rise in manufacturing output in February, together with the upward revision to January’s already strong gain, keeps up the sense that a gradual factory sector recovery is underway. With... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2026) China’s activity data suggest that growth accelerated at the start of the year, driven by both strong exports and a pickup in domestic demand. While China is better placed than most economies to... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the economy tipping into recession? The weakness in activity in January and the labour market in February leaves GDP at risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction. However, temporary factors are seemingly to blame, as the recent... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: big near-term increase in oil output unlikely Disruption to oil production in the Middle East has turned attention to Venezuela as an alternative source of oil supply. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater the incentive for oil majors... 13th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Terms of trade boost, Copom: 25bp vs 50bp As net energy exporters, most major Latin American economies benefit on net from the renewed leg up in oil prices. As thing stand, we don't think the inflationary impact will stop Brazil's central... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly LPG shortage taking a toll in India India's Finance Ministry today announced an "Economic Stabilisation Fund" which will be partly used to boost fertiliser subsidies, but a halt to supply of LNG would nevertheless cause major disruption... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan) The weakness in GDP growth at the end of last year was more severe than initially thought but, given the government shutdown appears to have been a significant drag, we anticipate a strong rebound in... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2026) With GDP not rising at all in January, it is clear the economy was subdued even before the leap in energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. We previously thought GDP growth would be 1.0%... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Gulf remittance risk for Asia A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could hit remittance flows as worsening economic prospects in the Gulf weighed on demand for migrant workers. A collapse in remittances seems unlikely. But any... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
