Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war weighing on EM manufacturers’ sentiment The manufacturing PMIs remained subdued across EMs last month despite the US-China trade truce. That said, the timely hard activity data released so far has shown more resilience than the survey data. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weak outlook for global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity has weakened so far in Q2. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain subdued in most countries apart from in the US, where tariffs already seem to... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2025) South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025) The surprise decline in the ISM manufacturing index in May indicates that tariffs continue to weigh significantly on the sector. While the May data is less gloomy than initially appears, as a sharp... 2nd June 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy struggling but exports holding up The impact of the trade war on Korean exporters has so far been limited. Although exports to the US fell in May, the decline was modest and offset by strong demand from other markets. However, other... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2025) The rise in the Caixin services PMI for May is reassuring and suggests that the US-China trade truce has boosted consumer and business sentiment. But it wasn’t enough to prevent the composite PMI from... 2nd June 2025 (Updated 5th June 2025) · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Evidence pointing to a weak Q2 UK GDP growth will almost certainly slow in Q2 after Q1’s bumper rise, irrespective of the outcome of the US tariff legal saga. Falls in business investment and exports will probably offset rises in... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: BoC to weigh up possibility of tariff reprieve The removal of the 25% fentanyl-related US tariffs would not transform the outlook for the Canadian economy, which would still suffer due to the impact of other tariffs and general uncertainty over... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Two years of Tinubu, SARB cut & inflation target Bola Tinubu marked his two year anniversary as Nigeria’s president this week by talking of new spending plans funded by foreign loans – which seems to be aimed in part at least at shoring up his... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May. 25) China’s economy slowed in April. And although US tariffs have had a bigger impact on consumer confidence than export growth, broader external headwinds will drive down export growth later this year... 30th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
