China Data Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec.) China’s statistics bureau claims that GDP was unchanged q/q in Q4. That is implausible, even accounting for December data showing surprising economic resilience in the face of the reopening wave of... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation expectations... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation will soon be below 2% The fall in Spanish gas and electricity prices that has already happened is likely to cause energy inflation to slump to minus 20% in the coming months and this in turn will pull headline inflation... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) The easing of supply shortages provided a big boost to motor vehicle shipments in November, but this failed to offset falls elsewhere. While there is scope for transportation equipment sales to rise... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Fracturing in 2023 – New Year, New Risks 1674054000 2023 has begun with the Ukraine war still raging, tensions mounting over global trade practices, but also signs that China is dialling down its aggressive diplomatic posturing.
UK Economics Update Drag from higher interest rates will soon intensify The recent resilience of the economy to the dual drags of high inflation and higher interest rates doesn’t mean the pain has been avoided. Instead, our analysis suggests that higher interest rates... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly China rebound, Thai election, new currency forecasts Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year. As daily life in China returns to normal, spending at hotels... 13th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession delayed not cancelled It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than... 13th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 contraction may have been avoided The euro-zone economy held up a bit better than we expected at the end of last year. On balance, the data point to GDP flat-lining or contracting only slightly in Q4. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
