Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy losing steam Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed bumper growth in 2022, but there were signs that activity was slowing in the final months of the year and we expect this trend to continue into the early part of 2023. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its... 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (January) 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More evidence of divergence across DMs The flash PMIs for January provide further evidence that the euro-zone economy has so far avoided the deep downturn that most economists anticipated, whereas the US and UK surveys still point to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Polish industrial production remained resilient in December but high inflation weighed heavily on real incomes and took its toll on retail sales. On balance, we think that Poland’s economy is likely... 23rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data take a turn for the worse The weakness of retail sales and manufacturing output over the final two months of 2022 has reignited market fears of a hard landing this week, with the Fed’s latest Beige Book acknowledging that... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
