Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The manufacturing sector made a stellar start to 2023, but the surveys suggest growth will soon slow and the banking sector problems in the US could weigh on manufacturing demand over the rest of the... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexico’s industrial sector stagnated in January as a slump in construction output offset solid increases in output in other subsectors. Early evidence suggests that activity held up well last month... 13th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Growth in industrial production picked up in January, supporting our view that Q4 will have marked the trough for q/q growth. Nevertheless, the outlook for the industrial sector over the coming months... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortages remain a key downside risk Efforts to improve the stability of coal supply have had some success over the past 18 months but shortages remain a key downside risk to the economic outlook. The upcoming summer months could be a... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the... 10th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
