Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks are done tightening The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2023) The Q3 GDP data will spark a big debate about whether or not the economy is in recession (the published growth rate was 0.0% q/q, but GDP declined by 0.03% or £173m). But the key point is that the... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Event US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook 14th November 2023, 3:00PM GMT Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 9th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy? An opposition win in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan’s economy during Tsai Ing-wen’s... 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q3) GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year but we don’t expect this strength to last as high interest rates and weaker global growth lead to renewed economic weakness in the near term. 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction activity will continue to decline Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q3 2023) Figures released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. Our own in-house activity tracker shows that the economy is... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
