Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) Brazilian industrial production fell for a third consecutive month in February and, while the latest surveys suggest that industry held up a bit better in March, the bigger picture is that Q1 looks to... 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s strong growth unlikely to be sustained Romania's economy has outperformed its peers in Central and Eastern Europe over the past year, but domestic demand looks unsustainably strong and a period of weaker growth will be needed to reduce the... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak hard activity figures out of South Africa suggest that stronger data from January were a blip and, following a contraction in GDP in Q4, increase the chances that the economy has... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP rebounded more quickly than expected in Q1 thanks to a rapid return to normality following last year’s virus disruptions. With consumer confidence on the mend and credit growth accelerating, there... 18th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output in March provides more evidence of a loss of economic momentum going into the second quarter. 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) After a bright start to the year, manufacturing activity weakened in February. While that was partly due to temporary factors that are likely to be quickly reversed, the surveys point to a challenging... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Surge in household incomes unlikely to be sustained Some of the continued resilience of the economy has been due to the performance of household incomes, which in real terms hasn't been as weak as we expected. Some of that is due to government payments... 14th April 2023 · 10 mins read
