Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response November PMIs The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa showed that non-hydrocarbon private sectors in the Gulf have sustained strong momentum at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, while there... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt ratio will keep falling While there have been growing concerns about public finances in some euro-zone countries recently, prospects for Greece’s debt are quite bright. Steady economic growth, large primary surpluses and low... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Despite strong growth, core inflation normalising This week’s modest upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth was certainly eye-catching. It suggests that the US economy is not just surviving the surge in interest rates over the last couple of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Brighter past, gloomier future The revisions to the national accounts leave the post-pandemic recovery looking stronger than we thought. But that is partly due to intense inventory building, which leaves the economy vulnerable to a... 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs edge up, but external demand remains weak The emerging market manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag – although most headline indices edged up, they remained below 50 in over half the countries that we track, largely due to weak... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs don’t alter the weak outlook for 2024 The manufacturing PMI surveys have overstated the weakness in industrial production over the past couple years. But, even taking this into account, November’s PMIs suggest that while global industry... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The unchanged reading of 46.7 for the ISM manufacturing index in November suggests that manufacturing activity continued to struggle despite the end of the United Auto Workers strike. There will... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023) The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
