Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Asia Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US. While the tariffs are higher than we initially assumed, the impact on most countries will be manageable since they won’t... 1st August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariffs will slow Swiss growth, but not halt it We think the surprisingly high tariff rate on Switzerland of 39% that the US announced yesterday is likely be negotiated down in future and, importantly, pharmaceutical goods still appear to be exempt... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect activity in Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors to struggle in the coming months. And with inflation... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 25) China’s economy slowed in Q2, despite industrial activity holding up well in the face of US tariffs. With US-China ties improving, we don’t think tariffs will be as significant of a drag on growth as... 31st July 2025 · 0 mins read
