Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025) The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside. 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2025) The weakness in August housing starts was as expected, especially after July’s hard-to-explain strength. While homebuilders have recently become more optimistic about prospects for housing demand, as... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa made a bumpy start to Q3 July’s activity data showed that South Africa’s start to Q3 was a bumpy one, with retail sales and mining output surging at the same time that the manufacturing sector hit fresh difficulties. We... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025) The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Counting the cost of crime in Latin America Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar... 16th September 2025 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output continued its long trend of underwhelming growth in August, bucking claims that tariffs would either trigger a downturn or a reshoring renaissance. Instead, the factory sector... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales indicate that consumers are not pulling back despite the labour market cooling. 16th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Korea unpacked: the outlook for the year ahead Korea’s economy has rebounded strongly in recent months. However, we don’t expect this to last. Weaker exports, fading fiscal support and the continued downturn in the property market are likely to... 16th September 2025 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2025) The increases in manufacturing and wholesale sales in July suggest tentative signs of a recovery in two of the sectors hardest hit by US tariffs. Less encouragingly, new orders fell by 2.2%, while the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2025) The activity data point to a further loss of momentum last month. While some of this reflects temporary weather-related disruptions, underlying growth is clearly sliding, raising pressure on... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
