US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP means that the economy dodged a technical recession last quarter. But growth was driven by a rebound in agriculture and the rest of the economy – and the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Healthy monsoon would boost India’s economy A robust monsoon this year – as predicted by experts – wouldn’t have as big an impact on India’s economy as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it could boost employment and energy... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2025) The acceleration in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, to 0.4% q/q, suggests the economy started the year on a stronger footing than we expected and activity surveys suggested. Nevertheless, we still expect... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia showed that momentum in both economies slowed at the start of this year, with Hungary suffering a renewed contraction. The risks to our below... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2025) The drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools. While the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 25) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 25) US tariffs will start to weigh on China’s export growth soon. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but it won’t be enough... 29th April 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s Q1 growth weaker than officials claim Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (April 2025) The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
