Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron a new type of challenge for labour market The Omicron wave will be characterised more by heightened absenteeism from work than previous waves. This raises the risk that the hit to activity will be larger than current restrictions alone might... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines in no rush to hike, new growth forecasts Falling inflation and an increasingly uncertain economic outlook add weight to our non-consensus view that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) will not tighten monetary policy in 2022. Meanwhile... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam Japan’s car industry has rebounded quickly from the disruptions caused by Delta waves across South-East Asia a few months ago. But amidst persistent supply shortages, output hasn’t quite returned to... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Nov. 2021) Wage growth fell to zero in November due a slump in bonus payments, but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent reopening feeds into a renewed recovery in overtime and bonus... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
