Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024
Europe Economics Weekly September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024) 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2024) Rising inflation, a worsening fiscal position and a slump in the real prompted Brazil’s central bank to leave the Selic rate at 10.50% today and strike a more hawkish tone in the accompanying... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed lays the groundwork for September rate cut There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
