Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain ultra-loose The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings and assessment of the economy unchanged today. As inflation is unlikely to be sustained at or above target for the foreseeable future, we’re still... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Rates heading to 5.25% The recent persistence of inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will proceed with another 25 basis point (bps) rise in Bank Rate from 4.50% to 4.75% next Thursday and ultimately raise... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Pause not an end to monetary tightening Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left its main policy rate unchanged today at 21%, but we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the SBP’s tightening cycle. With inflation well above target... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control here to stay The Bank of Japan has kept sending dovish signals in recent weeks and our view remains that it won’t make major policy changes this year. And we doubt that the upcoming review will show a compelling... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank resumes hikes and probably another to come The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for at... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jun. 23) 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
