Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Balance to tip in favour of a rate cut We think the balance will tip in favour of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% on Thursday 18th December. But it will be close. And with Bank Rate now within the Bank’s 2-4% estimate of the neutral... 11th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Risks skewed towards ECB cuts in 2026 Stronger-than-expected economic data and recent comments by Isabel Schnabel have pushed up investors’ interest rate expectations for the coming years. Christine Lagarde will acknowledge the... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) Brazil’s central bank continued to strike a hawkish tone as it left interest rates on hold again at 15.00% today. There was little in the statement to suggest that policymakers are preparing for a... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed softens blow of hawkish cut with asset purchase restart The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks influenced the accompanying policy statement, which notes that the FOMC will... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks on the Committee had a clear influence on the accompanying policy statement... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank tempers hike expectations amid stronger labour market The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected. While there was recognition from policymakers that the labour market had... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 12.5% y/y in October to 12.3% y/y in November despite further rent rises and fuel subsidy cuts. Even so, given the Central Bank of Egypt’s own... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026 The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February. 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025) The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike. 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI resumes easing cycle; one more rate cut to come The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today resumed its easing cycle and struck a fairly dovish tone. With inflation set to stay well-below target and growth set to ease over the coming quarters, we remain... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada’s easing cycle over… for now The Bank of Canada is all but guaranteed to keep its policy rate on hold next week, although the weakness of domestic demand and fading core price pressures mean we still expect rates to eventually be... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
