Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The further fall in inflation in June, coupled with signs of economic weakness and a decline in risk premia, prompted the South African Reserve Bank to leave its repo rate at 8.25%, bringing this... 20th July 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Close to the peak but rate cuts a long way off There is little doubt that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by a further 25bp next week, to 3.75%. The September decision will be a much closer call but we think another 25bp then is most likely... 20th July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK to change course soon The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) and the accompanying statement and press conference were more hawkish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we are pushing back the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s hiking cycle is over The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pay hikes in collective bargaining agreements soar Notwithstanding the RBA's decision to leave rates on hold on Tuesday, we still expect the Bank to deliver three more 25bp rate hikes before bringing its tightening cycle to an end. Indeed, the case... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
