Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Inflation Report Briefing (Feb.) The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central bank won’t lead... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March looks finely balanced. Our current assumption... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data... 6th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 24) 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Feb. 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell suggests first rate cut more likely to be May Based on the surprisingly explicit steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through today’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch A dovish pivot is on the horizon We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly... 31st January 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Hungarian central bank’s communications following its meeting today confirm that the decision not to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle was due to the recent ratcheting up of tensions between... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Monetary easing in Singapore likely in April The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but weaker growth and easing concerns about inflation are likely to prompt the central bank to loosen policy in... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
