Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks in better shape, but external risks still high Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and... 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Turkey fell to 55.2% y/y in February, but underlying price pressures remain strong and the disinflation process appears to be happening more slowly than had been expected. Inflation will... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2022) Turkey’s economy expanded by 0.9% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q4, but growth remained unbalanced as it was driven largely by private consumption while net trade provided a sizable drag. We think growth will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The rebound in industrial production in Turkey in December and the strength of retail sales in recent months point to an expansion of GDP in the order of 0.5-1.0% q/q in Q4. Activity will be disrupted... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
