Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Case for February rate hike remains intact

Following the release of weaker than expected November inflation figures, the financial markets now only see a small chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting in February. However, if the Q4 CPI...

9th January 2026 · 4 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Update

Weak total returns continue into 2026 amid tight yield spreads

Asia-Pacific property markets have performed largely in line with our mid-2025 forecasts, with investment activity recovering only moderately and returns held back by falling capital values. We expect...

7th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Nov. 25)

While trimmed mean inflation slowed in February, it’s probably still too strong for the RBA’s liking and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will tighten policy as soon as next month.

7th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest

Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run.

2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet

Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical...

19th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes

The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the...

18th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking

When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect...

12th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025)

Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February.

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025)

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike.

9th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine?

The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own.

5th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting

The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Oct. 25)

The surge in household spending in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further. If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long.

4th December 2025 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future

With inflation showing signs of persistence, activity recovering, and the labour market holding its own, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to deliver a hawkish hold at its meeting next week...

3rd December 2025 · 7 mins read