Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA to keep calm even as waters grow choppy

At first glance, it would seem that downside risks to activity and inflation are growing in Australia. The ABS' household spending indicator suggests that consumer spending slowed to a halt in Q1...

9th May 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia's soaring gold exports won’t prevent mining demise

Around half of the recent surge in gold exports reflects soaring prices. While the latter may encourage mining firms to expand output, it will probably take years for gold production to return to its...

8th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Federal Election

The Australian Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is cruising towards victory in yesterday’s federal election. Given that our forecasts assumed policy continuity, we are inclined to...

4th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls

With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to...

2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2025)

2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Weak housing market starting to weigh on inflation

Stretched housing affordability continues to keep a lid on house price growth. And if we’re right that the RBA will only lower rates by another 50bp, it will remain a headwind. But with the housing...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2025)

30th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil

Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand...

25th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025)

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ

Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to...

17th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2025)

17th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

A primer on Australia’s general election

The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a...

16th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Weaker business confidence would force RBA’s hand

While the recent drop in crude oil prices would lower inflation a bit, that drag will be more than offset by a boost from the weaker Australian dollar. The upshot is that barring a sharp fall in...

14th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode

With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to...

11th April 2025 · 6 mins read