Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a... 12th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update RBA’s dovish tilt unlikely to be replicated elsewhere With price pressures still strong, the looming global recession is unlikely to derail central banks’ tightening plans in the months ahead. While the RBA quoted the deteriorating global outlook when it... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug. 2022) The further fall in the trade surplus in August largely reflects a plunge in export prices and net trade should still provide a small boost to Q3 GDP. But with commodity prices now clearly down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Looser policy on the cards before long The Reserve Bank of Australia slowed the pace of monetary tightening by delivering a smaller 25bp rate hike to 2.60% this month, but we still expect rates to peak a touch higher than most anticipate... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Oct. 22) 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Australia’s house prices have now fallen by 5% since the start of the current downturn and rapidly worsening affordability suggests they will fall by another 10%. 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Monthly CPI Indicator & Job Vacancies (Aug. 2022) The inaugural release of Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator showed that inflation eased a bit in August, though we still expect it to approach 8% in Q4. Meanwhile, the first drop in job vacancies since... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug.) 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2022) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. And with the savings rate still well above pre-virus levels, retail... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Aug. 22) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. The 0.6% m/m increase in retail sales values in August was a little... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will cut rates next year Other analysts are catching up to our view that rates will rise well above 3%. But with Australia not facing a wage-price spiral and higher interest rates set to reverse the recent surge in goods... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA recapitalisation not off the table yet Despite incurring a record loss last year and now having to operate with negative equity, the RBA has not requested a recapitalisation from the government. But given that it did receive a capital... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2022) While the first rise in Australia’s unemployment rate since last year’s Delta lockdown should be followed by a renewed fall, it will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to slow the pace of... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 22) 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Why Australia will avoid a recession The continued resilience of the economy means that the RBA will have to raise rates more sharply than most expect, which in turn will result in a more severe slowdown in activity than widely... 14th September 2022 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul. 2022) The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
