Global Economics Update

Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary

The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to lift rates more sharply than most expect

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bp today and the upward revision to its inflation forecasts are consistent with our view that rates will peak at an above-consensus 3.85%. However, we...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 22)

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)

The worst of the housing downturn is probably behind us but we still expect prices to fall by another 10% following the 1.1% m/m drop in October.

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2022)

-We are resending this publication due to an error in the previous email. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.- While retail sales kept rising for the ninth consecutive month in September...

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 22)

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April

While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more...

26th October 2022 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022)

Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most...

26th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022)

26th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Budget repair will worsen economic slowdown

The Treasurer resisted the temptation to spend the tax windfall from high commodity prices in today’s Budget. But with high inflation lifting payments by at least as much as receipts, the government...

25th October 2022 · 3 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: When will Australian inflation peak?

26th October 2022, 7:00AM BST

Economists from our ANZ and Global Markets teams were online shortly after the release of Q3 CPI data for a 20-minute briefing in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues, incl

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22)

Australia’s labour market is starting to sputter but with unemployment set to remain low, the RBA will continue to hike interest rates.

20th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22)

20th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wealth effects pose downside risks to consumption

Australia’s record housing downturn may not result in dwellings investment falling quite as sharply as we’re anticipating. However, the largest wealth destruction in Australia’s modern history poses...

17th October 2022 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

We think the aussie and kiwi have a bit further to fall

We expect the aussie and the kiwi to weaken further against the US dollar and trough around mid-2023. And while we don’t expect the aussie to outperform the kiwi as it has recently, we think it will...

12th October 2022 · 4 mins read