Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA ends QE; first rate hike will come in August The RBA today ended its bond purchases, revised up its inflation forecasts and no longer signalled that wage growth needs to be “materially higher” to meet its inflation target on a sustained basis... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates in August The jump in consumer prices in Q4 reflected further strong gains in the usual suspects of petrol prices and costs of new dwelling purchases. But services inflation has picked up sharply as well. With... 28th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA probably won’t hike before the May election Trimmed mean inflation will probably climb above the upper end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band in Q1, which would add to the case for the RBA to start hiking rates in May. However, the RBA hasn’t... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The strong rise in underlying inflation at the end of last year means the RBA is all but certain to end its asset purchase scheme at its meeting next week. And with underlying inflation now above the... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February. 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021) November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect the RBA to end QE in February Surging cases of the Omicron variant are putting Australia’s healthcare system under pressure and will weigh on consumption in Q1. But we think fresh lockdowns will be avoided. What’s more, growing... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Omicron will add to upward pressure on inflation The Omicron variant will probably result in a stagnation in consumption this quarter. However, by worsening supply shortages it will only add to the upward pressure on inflation. The upshot is that it... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) The easing in house price growth in December will continue in 2022. And we expect further tightening in lending standards and rises in interest rates to cause house prices to fall in 2023. 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
