Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 22) The solid rise in Q1 GDP supports our view that the economy will hold up better in the face of rising interest rates and falling real incomes than most anticipate. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - The case for a windfall tax on mining profits The rapid improvement in the public finances means that the government can provide financial support to households struggling with high energy bills without raising taxes. But if it did decide that... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 3.0% by early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hike its cash rate by another 25bp at its meeting on 7 th June, but we expect it to accelerate its hiking cycle with a 40bp hike in August following the... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2022) The fourth consecutive rise in retail sales values in April underlines that consumers are not throwing in the towel in the face of falling real incomes and rising interest rates. 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor government mean for Australia? A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2022) While the unemployment rate held steady at a 48-year low in April, the slowdown in employment growth and the sluggishness of wage growth will probably convince the RBA to hike rates by 25bp next month... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The unchanged pace of quarterly wage growth in Q1 should ensure the RBA won’t accelerate its hiking cycle just yet. But with the labour market still tightening and inflation still rising, we think... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
