Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Is the strength in employment an accounting illusion? The labour force survey overstates the strength of the recovery in employment because it doesn’t capture the plunge in the number of non-resident workers. However, their impact on the labour market... 27th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA policy tightening getting closer The continued decline in the unemployment rate, along with the Fed’s hawkish shift this week will be putting a bit of pressure on the RBA. And given our view that labour shortages will result in... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May demonstrates that the labour market is continuing its extraordinary rebound which supports our call for the RBA to move to a flexible asset purchase programme in July. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may make QE more flexible We now expect the RBA to refrain from announcing a target for the overall amount of bond purchases at the July meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged at $5bn. A more flexible... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gradual increases in 10-year DM bond yields We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 2021) Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow. 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month The Reserve Bank of Australia still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. We think it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn next month. 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
