Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2021) The solid rise in activity in Q1 means that New Zealand easily avoided a second technical recession and we expect GDP to continue its rebound over the rest of 2021. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gradual increases in 10-year DM bond yields We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals policy tightening next year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more optimistic at today’s meeting and signalled that it will start to hike rates in the second half of next year, in line with our long-standing forecast. If... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly QE to continue beyond September The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth and the labour market but still expects inflation to fall short of its target. With the Bank showing little... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
