Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) We had already expected the RBNZ to hike rates in August and the surge in inflation in Q2 only bolsters our confidence in that forecast. 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand- End of asset purchases signals rates will rise soon The RBNZ today sent a hawkish signal by announcing the end of its bond purchases. While we currently expect the Bank to start hiking rates in May next year, the risk is that it will happen earlier. 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening creeping closer We doubt the RBNZ will adjust any policy settings when it meets next Wednesday 14 th July. However, as the New Zealand economy continues to recover faster than the RBNZ expects we think the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk The surge in consumption in Q1 resulted in the savings rate falling to a 15-year low. While we expect households to respond to falling house prices with higher savings, the rebound in GDP could be... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA policy tightening getting closer The continued decline in the unemployment rate, along with the Fed’s hawkish shift this week will be putting a bit of pressure on the RBA. And given our view that labour shortages will result in... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices to fall in 2022 We expect the RBNZ to impose new lending restrictions in the months ahead which, in addition to rising interest rates, should result in house prices declining next year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
