Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023 While the strength in New Zealand’s economy will cause the RBNZ to hike rates further this year, we think the RBNZ will end its hiking cycle earlier than the financial markets anticipate. What’s more... 12th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect the RBA to end QE in February Surging cases of the Omicron variant are putting Australia’s healthcare system under pressure and will weigh on consumption in Q1. But we think fresh lockdowns will be avoided. What’s more, growing... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to end asset purchases in February While the Omicron variant poses some downside risks, Australia’s labour market has all but recovered from the recent lockdowns and we think that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Reserve... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2021) The fall in New Zealand’s output in Q3 will have partially unwound in Q4 as lockdowns were gradually eased. And the fact the fall in GDP was much smaller than the RBNZ’s forecast supports our view... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Federal fiscal resilience masks state weakness Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will gloat when he unveils in the upcoming Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook that the federal deficit will be smaller in 2021/22 than expected despite the recent Delta... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Omicron could add to inflationary pressure If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates to 2.0% next year While the RBNZ only hiked rates by 25bps at today’s meeting, it is set to continue lifting rates next year. However, we think a slowdown in the economy will end the Bank’s hiking cycle with the OCR at... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
