RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle shows no signs of slowing Rising interest rates have started to weigh on house prices and sentiment. But inflation is probably still rising and the labour market is still tightening. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to hike... 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures keep building The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2022) The fall in GDP at the start of the year was due to the disruption to activity from the Omicron outbreak. Growth will have rebounded strongly in the current quarter, but we suspect falling house... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA could raise rates even faster than we anticipate We’ve long been arguing that the RBA will lift rates more sharply than most analysts anticipate and the RBA’s surprise 50bp rate hike this week is consistent with our view that rates will reach 3% by... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining’s heydays are over Mining accounted for less than 10% of GDP last quarter for the first time since 2015 and with mining firms not responding to soaring commodity prices with higher investment, that decline has further... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ confirms hiking cycle to be followed by cuts The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it hiked rates by 50bp today, and we now think rates will rise to 3.5% by the end of this year. But the Bank endorsed our long-held non-consensus view that rate cuts will... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to keep tightening aggressively The New Zealand economy was running hot even when the Omicron variant was disrupting activity. Now that the peak of the Omicron wave has passed, mobility is rebounding and inflation expectations are... 19th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
