Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Job mobility eases, critical minerals policy disappoints The latest Labour Force Survey data show that labour mobility in Australia is coming off the boil. That should help contain wage pressures going forward, given that job switching typically results in... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly No relief for Australian mortgagors All signs are that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is unlikely to revise its guidance for the minimum serviceability buffer banks must apply when assessing home loan applicants. As a... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2023) The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
