India Economics Weekly Food inflation concerns are mounting The upside risks to our inflation forecasts for this year are building given the sharp rise in vegetable prices in July and El Ni ño related weather uncertainties. We aren't inclined to forecast... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in June after reaching a 31-month high in the previous month. This points to slight cooling in growth in the manufacturing sector and we think further slowdown... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Central banks shifting into easing mode EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in... 29th June 2023 · 30 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Slower growth, falling inflation and interest rate cuts GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity... 22nd June 2023 · 34 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Q3 Outlook, inflation plunge, policy pivot? The overarching message from our Q3 India Outlook is that policy rate cuts will soon come on to the agenda as the economy enters a mild slowdown and inflation settles at comfortable rates over the... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle won’t need... 12th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read