India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI maintains hawkish tone amid food price surge The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update India’s rice export ban: a food security warning shot? We think the price of rice is set to climb after India’s additional rice export restrictions have exacerbated global shortage concerns. For now, though, we don’t expect other major producers to follow... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in July to a three-month low, and we expect higher rates and subdued global demand to weigh more substantially on manufacturing activity over the coming months. 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP faces no-confidence vote, July inflation surge The no-confidence vote that has been triggered against Prime Minister Modi's BJP is highly unlikely to lead to the fall of the government given the BJP's sizeable parliamentary majority. But it may... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly El Niño + global warming = long-term EM headache “The Boy” is back Much ink has been spilled – not least by ourselves – on the potential impacts of the return of El Niño conditions on commodities and economies. It’s fair to say that some of the... 27th July 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation came in at 4.8% y/y in June, comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. But that’s already old news given the surge in vegetable prices so far in July and the... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The implications of a severe El Niño for India A severe El Niño event could be the harbinger of weak monsoon rains in India. This wouldn’t have as big an economic impact as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it would harm employment... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read