India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. But it is clear that... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances are often an underappreciated source of foreign currency for India. While growth in remittances will slow in the next few years, they should remain an important source of external funding... 7th February 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal and monetary restraint The Finance Ministry resisted the temptation to ramp up pre-election giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25, and we think the RBI will show similar restraint next week by maintaining its hawkish... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry shows restraint as election looms Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated a long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit in the Interim Budget announcement for FY24/25. There is always a... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The final manufacturing PMI reading for January suggests that activity got off to a strong start this year. Looking ahead, while manufacturing output is likely to moderate in the coming months, it... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Interim Budget As it is a general election year, there will be at least some temptation from within the ruling BJP to announce big fiscal giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25 next week. But following the BJP... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s economy in the era of AI India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in... 23rd January 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil is not flowing so smoothly anymore Increasing enforcement of the G7’s price cap on Russian oil could force India to buy crude from elsewhere at higher prices, but we doubt this will deal a major blow to the external position. Meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Why has FDI into India slumped? The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop... 9th January 2024 · 5 mins read