Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the surge in Warsaw industrial rents continue? Warsaw industrial rents have seen an unprecedented surge in recent months on the back of strong demand and supply constraints due to the war in Ukraine. And while growth is set to slow significantly... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Erkan in the spotlight, Israel’s pivotal week Turkey's new central bank governor presented a much more realistic set of inflation forecasts and delivered a convincing message at her first Inflation Report briefing this week. The priority is... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food security risks back in the spotlight Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
