Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: shrinking CA surplus to erode sanctions resilience A widening of Russia’s budget deficit next year to 2.5% of GDP will increase pressure on the government to keep a firm grip on non-military spending. But it should be able to finance the shortfall... 14th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail better placed as yields rise Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The large increases in both industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in October provide clear signs that activity is holding up well despite the various domestic and external headwinds. But we... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Russian inflation fell further last month, to 12.0% y/y, and the breakdown provided further signs that demand remains very weak. But this won’t offset the central bank’s concerns about pro-inflation... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary fending off another crisis, weak activity data The decision by Hungary’s government to abandon its cap on petrol and diesel prices this week adds to what has already been a sharp withdrawal of government support in recent months. Hungary’s economy... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surveys improve, Turkey’s FX reserves rebound The batch of survey data for November released this week improved across the region, but the data are still very weak and suggest that recessions lie in store in most countries. Elsewhere, the rebound... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia entering a new era with euro adoption Croatia’s adoption of the euro on 1st January 2023 is likely to bring only small benefits to the economy given how widely used the euro already is in the country. Even so, we think prospects for... 30th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2022) Turkey’s resilience since last year’s currency crisis came to an end in Q3 as the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q. Private consumption remained strong, but fixed investment declined and net trade was a... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
