Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, but our regional GDP-weighted measure edged up and is consistent with an... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Turkey’s central bank stuck to the course today as it delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 35%. A few more large hikes are likely to be delivered in the coming months too, which should help... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: FX worries mean rate cuts unlikely for now The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today and, while its communications provided little firm policy guidance, policymakers clearly have one eye on the currency and will... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM exports treading water Aggregate EM goods exports have struggled for momentum in recent months and, while there were more positive signs from some of the timely September trade data, we think that exports are likely to... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland's election: opposition on track for victory The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four points on the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict There remain enormous uncertainties about how the war between Israel and Hamas will develop. Israel's economy has proven resilient to conflicts in the past, but its military efforts in Gaza this time... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
