Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation hit 80.2% y/y in Turkey in August, breaching 80% for the first time since 1998. Even so, the central bank is likely to remain beholden to President Erdogan’s wishes for looser policy and it... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Manufacturing PMIs for August were a mixed bag, with further signs that Russian industry is recovering while PMIs in Turkey, Poland and Czechia remained weak and are consistent with contractions in... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe for August continued the trend in recent months of very weak data releases for the region and point to a sharp slowdown in GDP... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises start to weigh on values Higher interest rates and a weaker economic and property outlook contributed to a rise in all-property yields in Q2. While office and industrial rents still made solid gains, this increase in yields... 25th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the economy to stagnate... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022) GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking... 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2022) Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
