Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s softer-than-expected activity data for January suggest that the economy started 2023 on weak footing and we expect it to struggle for momentum over the first half of the year as high... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2022) The 2.1% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 was smaller than expected and is consistent with an expansion in Q4, providing further evidence to suggest that the economy stabilised after the initial hit... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI sticks to aggressive tightening, cycle still not over The Bank of Israel (BoI) hiked interest rates by another 50bp, to 4.25%, today and while it continued to point to signs of slower growth, it sounded more concerned about the strength of inflation than... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Further cuts to Russian oil production still on the table Russia’s crude oil production has, up until now, been remarkably resilient in the face of Western sanctions. But the recent announcement of a voluntary cut seems to be the first concrete sign that... 17th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q4 2022) The surprise acceleration in Israel GDP growth in Q4, to 5.8% q/q annualised, is not as good as it seems at first sight. The strength was largely driven by an unexpected surge in expenditure on... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2022) The falls in GDP in Central and Eastern Europe shown in the Q4 figures probably mark the worst of the regional downturn, but we still think that activity will (at best) only stagnate over the first... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update A tough year ahead for Prague retail Prague retail saw an unexpected rental uplift at the end of 2022, ending three years of decline. But we think that will be a false dawn and expect that a subdued consumer outlook will combine with... 13th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 23) 10th February 2023 · 2 mins read
