Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s external vulnerabilities building Romania’s widening current account deficit is not quite as alarming as the headline figure would suggest, but rapid import growth has still increased the country’s dependence on capital inflows. With... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift The victory of the ANO party in the recent Czech election has put the spotlight back onto the rise of populism in Central Europe. In this Update, we take a closer look at the political and economic... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI for Turkey – which fell to a six-month low – supports our view that following an impressive Q3, growth will slow in Q4. Elsewhere in the region, the Czech PMI painted a... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further downside for the Turkish lira The Turkish lira has strengthened a little today, but it has been the worst-performing major EM currency this month. We have revisited our forecasts and we now expect further falls in the currency... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that GDP growth remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth peaking Growth in Emerging Europe probably picked up further in Q3, but we think that this will mark the peak in the economic cycle and expect aggregate regional growth to weaken a little next year... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM currencies withstand the Fed? After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
