Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Cycles start to turn in the BRICs The growth outlook for major EMs is starting to diverge. While there are signs that a slowdown is now underway in China, cyclical rebounds lie ahead in India, Brazil and Russia. 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE labour markets tightening Strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the first half of the year has been accompanied by further evidence that labour markets are tightening. Unemployment rates have fallen to record... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows at start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened a little in April, but in several countries this was driven by calendar effects that should reverse in May. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap MSCI review prompts mixed reactions in Saudi and Argentina MSCI’s latest review of its benchmark equity indices has prompted significant moves in some of the largest frontier stock markets over the past month. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul has jumped 8% since MSCI... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets? We suspect that economic growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking in this cycle. Growth in Russia is likely to accelerate further over the course of 2017-18, but this will be more than offset by... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2017) The much sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish GDP in Q1, of 5.0% y/y, has prompted us to revise up our GDP growth forecast for the year as a whole to 4.3%. At the margin, today’s figures make it... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to rise further than most expect by end-2018 The press conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland highlighted that some members of the Council are becoming more hawkish. While this supports our view that the policy interest rate will... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic recovery levelling off Turkish GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the recovery levelled off in the first quarter at around 3.5% y/y. But there are signs of a healthy rebalancing of the drivers of growth. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Short-term prospects improve, but clouds gathering In the last few months, economic growth prospects have improved across Europe, boding well for rental growth and pointing to sharper falls in property yields in the next 12-18 months. But the improved... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture. Banks in Romania and Hungary – which have been among the weakest in Emerging Europe over the past decade – are returning to health, and... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that conditions in the manufacturing sectors of the region’s two largest economies – Turkey and Russia – are improving. Moreover, manufacturing in Central... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
