Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery to be stronger than consensus expects Despite a gradual shift in the consensus over the past couple of months, we still think that markets are underestimating the extent to which inflation and interest rates in Russia are likely to fall... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators remained strong across Central and Eastern Europe, suggesting that regional growth stayed above 4% y/y in Q2. These figures support our above-consensus growth... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s currencies outperform Currencies in Central Europe have been the best performing in the emerging world over the past month and we think that they should generally fare well in the coming years. 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: construction rebound driving faster growth A recovery in construction appears to have been the key driver of the marked acceleration in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q1. This rebound is likely to be sustained over the course of 2017... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Introducing our Taylor Rules for Central and Eastern Europe The combination of strong growth and rising inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has shifted attention to when and how policymakers might respond. To help answer this, we’ve created Taylor... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth concentrated in a handful of markets Economic performance has typically improved in the last few months, but this has only translated into rental growth in a few locations. Sentiment in Norway and Russia saw notable improvements... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing in Central Europe remained strong at the start of Q2, but highlight that the recoveries in Russia and Turkey are still fragile. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
