Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German Cash for Clunkers 2.0 won’t be a silver bullet Now that restrictions are being lifted, governments are inevitably facing calls to ensure that firms emerging from virus-imposed stasis have sufficient demand to stay open – not least in the German... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Courts try to stall the ECB as gov’ts ease off the brakes This week’s ruling from the German constitutional court won’t stop the ECB from ramping up its asset purchases this year, but it may be a sign of much bigger problems further down the line. Meanwhile... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The largest monthly decline in production since this time series was launched in 1991 will probably be followed by an even bigger fall in April. After that, we anticipate a gradual recovery. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German offices likely to outperform rest of euro-zone As Germany cautiously eases its lockdown, despite the significant hit to economic activity, the tight supply picture should help support prime office rents across the four main cities this year. 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Apr.) The Ifo has echoed the message from the PMIs published yesterday that Germany’s economy took a nose-dive in April, with the manufacturing sector following the services sector into a deep recession. 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ZEW Survey (Apr.) The sharp rebounds in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicators for both Germany and the euro-zone in April suggest that investors are now expecting some recovery from the complete collapse in activity... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German IAB Labour Market Barometer (Mar.) While the fall in the IAB Labour Market Barometer in March points to a modest increase in German unemployment in Q2, the fact that the survey largely pre-dates the ramp-up in containment measures... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response France Bus. Conf. (Mar.) & German Cons. Conf. (Apr.) The largest-ever fall in French business confidence in March leaves the survey pointing to a severe slump in activity at the end of Q1. But the reality is almost certainly much worse than this. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Mar.) The Ifo survey gives a similar message to the PMI: the German economy is collapsing, with services bearing the brunt. And the situation is likely to get worse in April. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany opens the fiscal taps Germany’s supplementary budget for nearly 5% of GDP sets an example that other euro-zone countries are likely to follow. However, we suspect that the costs will end up being much higher even than this... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo survey was very downbeat, but it may even understate the decline in business sentiment. While the ECB’s expansion of QE is a positive step towards containing the fallout from the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ZEW Survey (Mar.) The sharp drops in the ZEW measures of German and euro-zone investor sentiment in March came as no surprise, and point to sharp falls in GDP. Things are likely to get much worse in Q2, when we expect... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
