Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Mar.) The increase in German HICP inflation to 2.0% in March is not the end of the upward trend. We expect rising energy prices and some further unwinding of the factors which suppressed it last year to... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The strong Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for March provided further evidence that, the auto sector aside, Germany’s manufacturers are flourishing. But the rest of the economy is faring less well... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German inflation: below but close to 4%? We are raising our forecast for HICP inflation in Germany and expect it to peak at over 3.5% this year. But we doubt that this will prompt any policy tightening by the ECB because aggregate euro-zone... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February suggests that the German economy is weathering the lockdown better than anticipated. It also points to some upside risk to our forecast that... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The fall in the headline Ifo Business Climate Indicator for January is consistent with our view that, having proved resilient in Q4, German’s economy will contract in Q1. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) German manufacturers withstood the restrictions imposed in November much better than many feared, meaning the economy almost certainly expanded in Q4 last year. However, we suspect that it will... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index for December supports our view that Germany will avoid a contraction in Q4. But the new tightening in coronavirus restrictions, which came into effect... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov) & Q3 GDP (Second estimate) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index for November confirms that the German economy is losing momentum but also that it is holding up much better than many other countries. We suspect... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Second wave confirms downturn for German offices German occupier demand has slumped in the pandemic, though rents have generally held steady so far this year. But with demand likely to remain weak and an overhang of supply in some markets, declines... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) Germany’s manufacturing sector should be able to continue its recovery in the fourth quarter, even as much of the hospitality sector is closed down again. 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
