Global Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in October suggests that while the German economy is still growing at a decent pace, we are unlikely to see a return to the rates of growth... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why has logistics take-up diverged across Germany? A slowdown in retail sales growth helps to explain why logistics take-up volumes in Germany’s main cities have been weaker than across the rest of Germany. While the retail sector should pick-up next... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s 0.3% fall in German industrial production was much weaker than expected and suggests that the economy is very unlikely to match Q2’s 0.5% expansion in the third quarter. We have revised down... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) did little to reverse the previous month’s increase and left the index consistent with strong annual GDP growth of over 2%. 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German slowdown can’t be pinned on trade tensions The role of weakening exports in Germany’s recent slowdown makes it tempting to pin the whole thing on trade tensions. But the slowdown began before Trump’s tariff threats and seems more likely to... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s current account surplus ever shrink? Germany’s current account surplus is likely to narrow over the coming years, but we suspect that it will remain very large. So there is little chance that economic rebalancing in Germany will help to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further can German office values rise? Office capital values in Germany appear to be on an inexorable upward path. Although a sharp correction seems unlikely, there are good reasons to believe that they will peak in 2018. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected expansions in Germany and the Netherlands in Q2 provide some hope that the euro-zone economy may have grown more strongly in Q2 than initially estimated. This should... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s industrial production and trade figures suggest that the previously booming German economy is already feeling the effects of trade tensions. But with the domestic economy in good shape and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pick-up in Frankfurt office rents won’t be sustained Strong occupier demand and limited completions have boosted prime Frankfurt office rents. But with demand likely to ease and completions on the rise, this pick-up in rental growth is unlikely to last... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
